Evaluating Skill of the Keetch–Byram Drought Index, Vapour Pressure Deficit and Water Potential for Determining Bushfire Potential in Jamaica

Bushfire management which incorporates fire potential indices is still in its infancy Jamaica and the Caribbean. In this study three bushfire indices—Keetch–Byram Drought Index (KBDI), Vapour Pressure Deficit (VPD) Water Potential (Ψw)—are calculated for south-central where frequencies are highest. The skills of evaluated using their representation normalised climatology, monthly seasonal (December–March/DJFM; April–June/AMJ; July–August/JA September–November/SON) variability periods 2013–2017, 2010–2019 2001–2019. Fire data obtained from MODIS C6 Archive Brigade (JFB). relationship between large-scale oceanic atmospheric features also examined. results suggest that Ψw exhibits strong correlations with JFB climatologies represents well maxima March July local minima May–June October. VPDI show good hit rates moderate high-risk categories (though relatively high false alarm rates). Regression models premised on VPD respectively skill representing AMJ (R2 = 57–58%), SON 57–58%) JA 57–60%) variability. Variability during DJFM poorly captured by any index. Although KBDI climatology reasonably peaks occur one month later, is, April August. statistically significant climatologies, but do not perform as other two except JA. All had a both 1 lag time scales NINO3 TNA-NINO3 climate indices. indices, particular Ψw, prospects producing outlooks general. These usefulness monitoring patterns part framework bushfires island.